History: Has It Ever Been Predictable?

The American public recently watched a surprising event: After months of saying that he would stay in the presidential race, Joe Biden dropped out. What interested me most was the predictions that preceded it.

Some pundits were adamant that he would stay in; others, such as Bill Maher and Vivek Ramaswamy, were certain he wouldn’t.  (I have had difficulty finding the words of those other than Donald Trump who said he would keep going. Maybe they know how to “bury negative search results” on Google.)

Biden’s decision led me to think about whether events in history were predictable. Could the following events have been predicted? Continue reading “History: Has It Ever Been Predictable?”